The most common reason skilled forecasters struggle on prediction markets isn't poor judgment — it's inadequate money management. Even accurate probability assessments become worthless when a single losing streak wipes out your entire account.
Das Kelly-Kriterium: Die mathematische Grundlage
The Kelly Criterion provides the theoretically optimal fraction of your bankroll to allocate per trade: f = (bp - q) / b
- b = Net odds (for example, YES at 0,40: b = 1,5)
- p = your estimated probability
- q = 1 - p
In real trading: employ half Kelly instead. Because our probability estimates contain inherent uncertainty, half Kelly produces superior risk-adjusted performance.
Eiserne Regeln: Niemals brechen
- Never exceed 5% of your bankroll on any single position — without exception
- Never exceed 25% across a correlated cluster (such as all US election markets)
- Stop-Loss: Should you lose 25% of initial capital within a calendar month, cease trading for the remainder of that month
- Never add to a losing position without first reassessing the underlying thesis
Erholung nach Drawdown
Following a 20% drawdown, cut position sizes in half until you recover to your previous peak.
Häufig gestellte Fragen
- Wie viel Startkapital brauche ich für ernsthaftes Prediction Market Trading?
- Between 500-1.000 $ provides sufficient capital to distribute across 10-20 positions using half-Kelly sizing. Below 100 $ makes it difficult to implement disciplined position management.
- Was tun nach einer Gewinnserie?
- Become more cautious, not less. Winning streaks breed overconfidence. Stick to your sizing rules regardless of recent success.