Successful prediction market traders don't operate on impulse — they adhere to a disciplined weekly structure that allocates research hours strategically. Below is a proven 5-hour weekly framework.
Montag: Kalender und Markt-Scanning (1 Stunde)
- Review upcoming weekly catalysts: central bank announcements, electoral events, sporting fixtures, economic releases
- Browse PolyGram for recently launched markets not yet tracked
- Narrow down to 3-5 markets where you hold a meaningful edge in the coming week
- Assess current holdings — have recent developments surfaced that warrant position adjustments?
Dienstag-Donnerstag: Tiefenrecherche (2 Stunden)
- Conduct thorough analysis on each shortlisted market
- Generate your own probability estimate independently before examining market pricing
- Compare your estimate against the market quote — only commit capital if the discrepancy is material
- Apply the Kelly criterion to size each trade appropriately
Freitag: Ausführung und Überprüfung (1 Stunde)
- Execute planned trades during peak liquidity windows
- Monitor markets resolving this week — document outcomes against your forecasts
- Refresh your calibration log
Wochenende: Leistungsanalyse (1 Stunde)
- Compute weekly profit/loss and rolling Brier score
- Spot recurring patterns in forecast misses
- Digest one relevant research paper or market report within your domain of focus
Häufig gestellte Fragen
- Kann ich profitabel nebenberuflich handeln?
- Absolutely — many winning traders operate on fewer than 10 hours weekly. Research depth matters far more than raw hours invested.
- Welche Tools brauche ich für diese Routine?
- PolyGram platform for trading, a spreadsheet for record-keeping, and your domain-specific information sources. Specialist software is unnecessary.