Donald Trump has made clear that a 2028 candidacy remains constitutionally barred — serving as the sitting president (second term spanning 2025-2029) prevents him from seeking another term. Nevertheless, prediction markets remain highly active with wagers centred on his political trajectory: impeachment proceedings, approval ratings, legislative achievements, and determining which Republican figure might succeed him.
Aktuelle Trump-bezogene Prediction Market Quoten
As of May 2026 on PolyGram:
- Trump approval rating exceeds 45% through end of 2026: ~42% likelihood
- Trump faces indictment during 2027: ~18% likelihood
- Republican presidential nominee 2028: Multiple contenders trading actively
- Ron DeSantis emerges as 2028 nominee: ~15-20% likelihood
- Ivanka Trump enters 2028 race: ~8-12% likelihood
Warum Prediction Markets besser sind als Umfragen
Traditional polling regarding Trump exhibits considerable volatility depending on survey methodology and demographic composition. Prediction markets consolidate all accessible intelligence via price discovery: insiders, academics, media figures, and everyday participants all trade simultaneously — collective insight crystallises within market pricing.
Auf Trump-Märkten handeln
- Navigate to PolyGram political markets
- Filter for "Trump" or "Republican" related contracts
- Evaluate implied market probability against your own forecast
- Purchase YES shares (outcome occurs) or NO shares (outcome fails to occur)
Häufig gestellte Fragen
- Kann Trump 2028 kandidieren?
- No — constitutional limits restrict presidents to two terms. With Trump serving his second term from 2025-2029, eligibility for 2028 is constitutionally prohibited.
- Wer sind die favorisierten Republikanischen Kandidaten für 2028?
- Leading Republican contenders per current prediction market odds: Ron DeSantis, J.D. Vance, Nikki Haley, and additional prospects. PolyGram displays real-time odds across all viable Republican nominees.
- Wann lösen Präsidentschafts-Prediction Markets auf?
- Early 2028 presidential contracts settle following official certification of election results — ordinarily occurring in January 2029.