Nobel Peace Prize Winner 2026

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The 2026 Nobel Peace Prize will be announced by the Norwegian Nobel Committee on 9 October, with the ceremony due in Oslo on 10 December. The field is unusually broad: the Norwegian Nobel Institute says 287 candidates were registered for 2026, split between 208 individuals and 79 organisations. That scale matters for pricing a 9% crowd-implied probability, because the prize often lands on a less obvious consensus pick rather than the most publicly discussed names, and the committee can also split the award between people and institutions.

Recent markets have been driven by high-profile political figures after Reuters-linked reporting and public endorsements lifted Donald Trump into the leading group on Polymarket, alongside Yulia Navalnaya and Volodymyr Zelenskyy. But comparable Nobel Peace Prize outcomes have often favoured organisations or rights bodies rather than the most prominent geopolitical names, and the Norwegian Nobel Institute’s own nominated lists have repeatedly featured groups such as Sudan’s Emergency Response Rooms, the Committee to Protect Journalists, and international courts. That leaves the current price consistent with a wide-open contest rather than a strong favourite.

Traders should watch for the committee’s autumn timetable, nomination noise, and any fresh diplomatic developments that reshape the narrative around peace, ceasefires or humanitarian access. The main catalysts are not match-day style injuries or coaching changes, but public endorsements, conflict escalation, and whether a candidate keeps traction in international reporting through the summer. Reuters’ coverage has already shown how quickly a reported nomination can move sentiment, while the committee’s final vote in early October is the decisive event for settlement.

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Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.