Market statistics
- Total volume
- $946K
- 24h volume
- $557K
- Liquidity
- $519K
- Open interest
- $494K
Available prediction outcomes (14)
Sorted by descending live probability. Click any outcome to trade it on PolyGram.
Market context
This market resolves based on Bitcoin's closing price on the Binance BTC/USDT pair at the 12:00 noon ET candle on 6 June 2026. The specific price threshold is not disclosed in the market title, meaning traders are pricing the probability that Bitcoin closes above an undisclosed level on that particular minute. With a 3% implied probability, the market suggests either an extremely high price target or reflects the inherent difficulty in predicting precise intraday price levels nearly two years in advance.
Historical precedent shows that one-minute candle predictions for Bitcoin face substantial noise from intraday volatility and localised exchange dynamics. Even with directional conviction on longer timeframes, hitting specific price targets within single-minute windows involves considerable randomness. Markets settling on exact Binance candle closes have historically shown that exchange-specific liquidity patterns, order book depth, and flash movements can create divergence from broader market pricing, making such narrow windows difficult to forecast with confidence.
Key variables affecting Bitcoin's trajectory through mid-2026 include regulatory developments in major jurisdictions, macroeconomic policy shifts, and institutional adoption trends. The Federal Reserve's monetary policy stance and any significant changes to cryptocurrency classification or taxation frameworks could materially influence Bitcoin's valuation environment. Additionally, spot Bitcoin ETF flows, mining difficulty adjustments, and geopolitical events affecting risk sentiment remain ongoing catalysts that could reshape price dynamics across the settlement window.
Wikipedia Context
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BitcoinBitcoin is the first decentralized cryptocurrency. Based on a free-market ideology, bitcoin was invented in 2008 when an unknown person published a white paper under the pseudonym of Satoshi Nakamoto. Use of bitcoin as a currency began in 2009, with the release of its open-source implementation. From 2021 to 2025, El Salvador adopted it as legal tender curre
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Bitcoin in El SalvadorEl Salvador was the first country in the world to use bitcoin as legal tender, after it was adopted as such by the Legislative Assembly of El Salvador in 2021. It has been promoted by Nayib Bukele, the president of El Salvador, who claimed that it would improve the economy by making banking easier for Salvadorans, and that it would encourage foreign investme
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History of bitcoinBitcoin is a cryptocurrency, a digital asset that uses cryptography to control its creation and management rather than relying on central authorities. Originally designed as a medium of exchange, Bitcoin is now primarily regarded as a store of value.
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Bitcoin buried in Newport landfillIn 2013, Welsh computer engineer James Howells mistakenly disposed of a laptop hard drive containing the private key for 8,000 Bitcoin in the Docksway landfill in Newport, Wales. Howells subsequently assembled a team of specialists and secured funding to excavate the site, but Newport City Council refused permission, citing the environmental impact of the se
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for Bitcoin above 2026 on June 6?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
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