Bitcoin price on August 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

This market resolves based on Bitcoin's closing price at noon Eastern Time on 12 August 2026, using the 1-minute candle from Binance's BTC/USDT pair. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders view the specified price bracket as unlikely given current market conditions and historical volatility patterns around that timeframe.

Bitcoin's intraday volatility at fixed timestamps has historically ranged between 2–5% on ordinary trading days, though this varies sharply depending on macroeconomic announcements, Federal Reserve communications, or geopolitical events coinciding with the settlement window. Previous August trading sessions show moderate liquidity and seasonal patterns worth examining; 2024 and 2025 data from similar summer periods indicate mid-day price stability relative to opening and closing hours, though flash movements around economic data releases remain common.

Traders monitoring this market should track several dependencies: scheduled US economic data releases (inflation reports, employment figures) in the weeks preceding August, any major cryptocurrency regulatory announcements from the SEC or international bodies, and Bitcoin's correlation with equity markets during summer months when institutional trading volumes often thin. Recent volatility clustering and the proximity to the settlement date mean watching Binance's order book depth and spot-futures basis spreads will signal whether large positions are building. The exact bracket thresholds matter considerably given the "round up" rule for prices falling between ranges.

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Bitcoin price on August 12?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.