Bitcoin price on August 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

Bitcoin’s move into 4 August is being priced as an almost flat outcome, with the market implying **0% YES** and only limited interest so far. Recent prints across major venues have clustered in the low- to mid-$60,000s, with Bitcoin around $62,622 on Investing.com and roughly $63,137 as of the latest daily close in historical data, which suggests traders are anchoring to a relatively tight range rather than a decisive breakout.[4][3]

That backdrop matters because Bitcoin has already shown how quickly sentiment can reset from one session to the next. Earlier 2026 data show a sharp swing from roughly $60,074 in February to the mid-$70,000s at points in March, then back towards the low $60,000s by summer, underscoring that short-dated spot markets can move materially even when the broader trend looks range-bound.[15][9] For a noon ET Binance 1-minute close, the key issue is less long-run direction and more whether the market can hold inside the current band long enough to avoid a late-session spike.

Traders should watch for any overnight spot-led move, because the settlement uses a single Binance minute candle rather than a daily average. Fresh exchange pricing around $62,390 to $64,241 shows there is still enough intraday variation to shift the close between bracket levels if liquidity thins or a large order hits the book.[8][7] Any macro headline, ETF-flow surprise, or sharp move in broader risk assets could matter disproportionately because the market resolves on one exact timestamp rather than on the day’s overall trend.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for Bitcoin price on August 4?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Can I bet on individual matches?

Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

Which sports markets are available?

Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.