Bitcoin price on May 25?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

This market resolves on the Binance BTC/USDT closing price at noon Eastern Time on 25 May 2026, using the 1-minute candle data from Binance's spot trading interface. The settlement window closes at 16:00 UTC that day, allowing roughly four hours after the noon ET reference point for final price confirmation. Resolution depends entirely on Binance's recorded close price; if the price falls between two bracket thresholds, the higher bracket applies.

Bitcoin's price behaviour around specific calendar dates has historically shown limited predictability beyond broader market cycles and macroeconomic conditions. May 2026 sits roughly four years from the previous halving event (April 2024) and three years before the next (April 2028), placing it in a mid-cycle period where volatility typically reflects institutional positioning, Federal Reserve policy shifts, and regulatory developments rather than event-driven spikes. The 0% implied probability suggests traders currently see no consensus on which price bracket will resolve, indicating genuine uncertainty about where spot prices will settle on that particular date.

Key variables affecting Bitcoin's price trajectory through May 2026 include US monetary policy signals, spot and futures ETF flows, and any significant regulatory announcements from the SEC or international bodies. Geopolitical developments, corporate treasury allocation decisions, and macroeconomic inflation data releases in the months preceding May will shape positioning. Traders should monitor quarterly Federal Reserve communications and any legislative activity around cryptocurrency frameworks, as these have historically moved Bitcoin prices substantially within single trading sessions.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.