Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Sport Prediction Pick polygram.ink |
1% | 99% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open on Sport Prediction → |
Polymarket polymarket.com |
1% | 99% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open on Sport Prediction → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open on Sport Prediction → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open on Sport Prediction → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open on Sport Prediction → |
Live odds for Polymarket-based markets come from the Polygon order book. Non-Polymarket venues show attributes only; clicking any row opens the market on Sport Prediction.
Active sub-markets
| <68,000 | 1% YES | 100% NO |
| 68,000-70,000 | 1% YES | 99% NO |
| 70,000-72,000 | 8% YES | 92% NO |
| 72,000-74,000 | 71% YES | 29% NO |
| 74,000-76,000 | 20% YES | 81% NO |
| 76,000-78,000 | 1% YES | 99% NO |
Market context
This market resolves on the Binance BTC/USDT closing price at noon Eastern Time on 28 May 2026, using the 1-minute candle data from the exchange's standard trading interface. The settlement window extends to 16:00 UTC that same day, providing a fixed reference point for bitcoin's spot price against the US dollar at a specific moment in time.
Bitcoin's intraday volatility at noon timestamps has historically reflected a mix of Asian market close activity and early North American trading session momentum. Comparable single-point-in-time bitcoin price markets show that noon ET closures often capture transition periods between regional trading sessions, where volume patterns and price discovery can differ substantially from 24-hour averages. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders currently assess the market conditions or resolution mechanics as presenting asymmetric risk, though this reflects sentiment at the time of market creation rather than fundamental pricing difficulty.
Key variables affecting bitcoin's price trajectory through May 2026 include Federal Reserve policy signals, macroeconomic data releases, and regulatory developments in major jurisdictions. Institutional adoption announcements, spot exchange-traded fund flows, and geopolitical events have historically driven significant intraday swings. Traders should monitor scheduled economic calendars, central bank communications, and cryptocurrency regulatory news from the SEC and international bodies, as these frequently trigger volatility during standard trading hours when this market will settle.
Methodology
This page reviews Bitcoin price on May 28? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Sport Prediction — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- What does it cost to trade on Sport Prediction?
- Zero. Sport Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Sport Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Trade Bitcoin price on May 28? on Sport Prediction
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
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