"Toy Story 5" Opening Weekend Box Office

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Active sub-markets

Market context

*Toy Story 5* is opening into a strong commercial frame, with tracking pointing to roughly **$145 million to $150 million** domestically from about 4,400 North American theatres, while some analysts have floated a higher upside nearer **$160 million to $175 million** if walk-up demand stays hot.[1][3][5] That puts the crowd’s **11% YES** price in context: the market is effectively asking whether opening weekend will clear the relevant bracket under The Numbers’ final three-day domestic figure, and the current range is already being discussed as potentially the year’s biggest opening.[1][2]

Historically, Disney-Pixar sequels with broad family appeal can accelerate quickly once pre-sales and reviews land well, but they also need sustained Saturday and Sunday turnout to convert preview strength into the final three-day number.[1][2] Variety’s reporting on the film’s launch suggests the opening-night response and franchise recognition are supporting a very large debut corridor, which is why probability mass sits above ordinary animated releases even before final studio-confirmed numbers are locked in.[1][2]

The main catalysts to watch are finalised daily grosses on The Numbers’ box-office tab, the conversion of preview momentum into the official Friday-to-Sunday total, and any late shifts in exhibitor allocation or family-event competition that could move attendance between brackets.[1] If actuals keep tracking near the top of current forecasts, the market can move sharply once the 3-day weekend is no longer estimate-based; if attendance softens after Friday, the probability of clearing the higher ranges falls quickly.[1][3]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Sport Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Sport Prediction?

Zero. Sport Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Sport Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.