How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

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Market context

The Federal Reserve has left its target range unchanged at 3.50% to 3.75% through its March and April 2026 meetings, and futures pricing now leans towards a prolonged pause rather than near-term easing. That makes the current 70% implied probability for at least one cut in 2026 look more like a bet on later-year inflation and growth data improving than on an imminent policy turn.

Recent comparable calls from major banks have mostly shifted towards fewer cuts, or none at all. Fidelity says derivatives markets now imply no cuts this year, J.P. Morgan expects the Fed to hold steady for the rest of 2026, and Goldman Sachs is still looking for cuts, but not until March and June 2026. The spread of forecasts shows how sensitive the path is to incoming inflation and labour data, rather than to the current policy setting itself.

For traders, the key catalysts are the next few CPI and PCE releases, monthly payrolls, and the Fed’s remaining FOMC meetings, especially June, September and December. The April meeting kept rates unchanged, with policymakers citing sticky inflation, and recent commentary has been more cautious on easing. Any upside surprise in inflation could keep cuts off the table, while a softer labour market or clearer disinflation would reopen the case for one or two 25 bp reductions before year-end.

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Methodology

This page reviews How many Fed rate cuts in 2026? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

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