What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in August 2026?

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Market context

WTI crude oil is trading around the mid-$70s to high-$70s, with the market’s main question in August 2026 being whether it can test the low-$80s rather than break into a much higher regime. That fits the current 1% yes price as a very low bar: the crowd is pricing in a subdued month, not a sustained surge, even though some short-dated forecasts still allow a broad August range from roughly $68 to $107.[1][2][3]

For context, recent analyst work points to a market that is still range-bound and vulnerable to supply-side overshoot, with JPMorgan saying the first surplus emerges in August as Persian Gulf supply recovers and the EIA’s outlook also built around gradual normalisation in flows and inventories.[5][6] By contrast, the higher-end scenario needs a fresh disruption or a sharper inventory draw, while downside pressure is easier to explain if supply keeps recovering and the market stays focused on demand softness.[13][17]

Traders should watch inventory data, OPEC+ messaging, and any headlines on Gulf supply or shipping routes, because those are the most direct catalysts for a move out of the current band.[5][6][13] Recent coverage has already linked WTI’s early-August weakness to diplomatic progress on Iran, with one market note flagging a drop to about $77.11 on 4 August and technical resistance near $80, which keeps the path to a higher monthly print dependent on a clear reversal in fundamentals or geopolitics.[18]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

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