Claude Fable 5 restored for US customers by…?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Anthropic suspended public access to Claude Fable 5 on 12 June 2026, three days after its general release, following a directive from the US government. The market tests whether the company will restore access to US customers within the settlement window closing 2 July 2026—a span of just under three weeks from suspension.

Government-mandated model suspensions have historically been difficult to reverse on short timescales. The 1% implied probability reflects precedent: when regulatory bodies or government agencies intervene to restrict AI model access, reinstatement typically requires formal review processes, policy clarification, or legal proceedings that extend well beyond weeks. Previous instances of model restrictions—including temporary blocks on certain capabilities or geographic rollouts—have taken months to resolve, even when companies and regulators moved expeditiously. The compressed settlement window substantially narrows the path to resolution.

Traders should monitor announcements from Anthropic regarding the specific grounds for suspension and any formal communication with US regulators about reinstatement timelines. Public statements from government officials clarifying the directive's scope and duration would signal whether reversal is under active negotiation. Congressional statements or regulatory agency guidance on the matter could shift expectations materially. The absence of any public indication that discussions are underway to restore access within the timeframe, combined with the typical pace of government review cycles, supports the current low probability. Any news of expedited talks between Anthropic and relevant agencies would represent a significant catalyst.

Methodology

This page reviews Claude Fable 5 restored for US customers by…? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Sport Prediction — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Sport Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Sport Prediction?

Zero. Sport Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.