Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Sport Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
23% | 77% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
23% | 77% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Texas Longhorns | 23% |
| Ohio State Buckeyes | 14% |
| Notre Dame Fighting Irish | 14% |
| Miami Hurricanes | 13% |
| LSU Tigers | 11% |
| Georgia Bulldogs | 10% |
| Indiana Hoosiers | 5% |
| Mississippi Rebels | 4% |
| USC Trojans | 3% |
| Oregon Ducks | 2% |
| Texas A&M Aggies | 2% |
| Texas Tech Red Raiders | 1% |
| Alabama Crimson Tide | 1% |
| Oklahoma Sooners | 1% |
| Michigan Wolverines | 1% |
| Florida Gators | 0% |
| Team A | 0% |
| Team B | 0% |
| Team C | 0% |
| Team D | 0% |
| Team E | 0% |
| Team F | 0% |
| Team G | 0% |
| Team H | 0% |
| Team I | 0% |
| Team J | 0% |
| Team K | 0% |
| Team L | 0% |
| Team M | 0% |
| Team N | 0% |
| Team O | 0% |
| Team P | 0% |
| Team Q | 0% |
| Team R | 0% |
| Team S | 0% |
| Team T | 0% |
| Team U | 0% |
| Team V | 0% |
| Team W | 0% |
| Team X | 0% |
| Team Y | 0% |
| Team Z | 0% |
| Team AA | 0% |
| Team AB | 0% |
| Team AC | 0% |
| Team AD | 0% |
| Team AE | 0% |
| Team AF | 0% |
| Team AG | 0% |
| Team AH | 0% |
| Team AI | 0% |
| Team AJ | 0% |
| Team AK | 0% |
| Team AL | 0% |
| Team AM | 0% |
| Team AN | 0% |
| Team AO | 0% |
| Team AP | 0% |
| Team AQ | 0% |
| Team AR | 0% |
| Team AS | 0% |
| Team AT | 0% |
| Team AU | 0% |
| Team AV | 0% |
| Team AW | 0% |
| Team AX | 0% |
| Team AY | 0% |
| Team AZ | 0% |
| Team BA | 0% |
| Team BB | 0% |
| Team BC | 0% |
| Team BD | 0% |
| Team BE | 0% |
| Team BF | 0% |
| Team BG | 0% |
| Team BH | 0% |
| Team BI | 0% |
| Team BJ | 0% |
| Team BK | 0% |
| Team BL | 0% |
| Team BM | 0% |
| Team BN | 0% |
| Team BO | 0% |
| Team BP | 0% |
| Team BQ | 0% |
| Team BR | 0% |
| Team BS | 0% |
| Team BT | 0% |
| Team BU | 0% |
| Team BV | 0% |
| Team BW | 0% |
| Team BX | 0% |
| Team BY | 0% |
| Team BZ | 0% |
| Team CA | 0% |
| Team CB | 0% |
| Team CC | 0% |
| Team CD | 0% |
| Team CE | 0% |
| Team CF | 0% |
| Team CG | 0% |
| Team CH | 0% |
| Team CI | 0% |
| Team CJ | 0% |
| Team CK | 0% |
| Team CL | 0% |
| Team CM | 0% |
| Team CN | 0% |
| Other | 0% |
Market context
NCAA Football: 2027 National Champion. The market is currently pricing the outcome at 15% YES, meaning crowd-implied probability sits at that level. Settlement is scheduled for 2027-01-26T00:00:00Z. Unlike a sportsbook, the price you see is set by buyers and sellers competing in a live order book — there is no house edge or bookmaker margin to fade.
World-affairs prediction markets price discrete geopolitical outcomes — ceasefires, treaty signings, leadership transitions — and tend to drift on rumour and snap-correct on official announcements.
Watch for the underlying catalysts that move this category: each official announcement, dataset release, or scheduled milestone generally produces a step change in the implied probability. Trades execute instantly on Polygon, and shares pay $1 each at resolution if your side wins.
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for NCAA Football: 2027 National Champion. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
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