Bitcoin price on June 27?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying event is whether Bitcoin’s final noon close on 27 June 2026 exceeds a specific threshold, with the crowd assigning just a 1% chance it does. Historical patterns show Bitcoin has rarely sustained such extreme downside without a sharp reversal; in early 2026, it dipped to $60,074 before rebounding to nearly $98,000 by January, and its all-time high of $126,198 in October 2025 was followed by a 44% drop to current levels near $59,700[1][3][7]. Yet even at its lowest in February 2026, Bitcoin never approached the implied price level that would trigger a “No” outcome, suggesting the 1% probability may reflect overreaction to recent ETF outflows rather than a structural break[7].

Traders should monitor three catalysts: the continuation of ETF outflows, which have hit a record $3.4 billion across 11 consecutive days[6]; any shift in institutional flows that could absorb selling pressure, as noted by analysts targeting $88,000–$95,000 by end-June if flows resume[4]; and the Fear & Greed Index, currently at 13 (Extreme Fear), which often precedes contrarian rebounds[2]. A daily close below $70,000 has already triggered $768 million in liquidations, but the market’s resilience in past dips suggests a threshold breach may be less likely than the crowd implies[6]. Watch for scheduled macroeconomic data releases in late June that could alter risk sentiment and trigger volatility spikes.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Bitcoin price on June 27? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Sport Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Sport Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Sport Prediction?

Zero. Sport Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Sport Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.