Bitcoin price on May 26?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

This market resolves on the Binance BTC/USDT closing price at noon Eastern Time on 26 May 2026, using the 1-minute candle data from the exchange. The settlement window extends to 16:00 UTC that same day, allowing for any final price movements before resolution. If the spot price lands exactly between two price brackets, the higher bracket determines the outcome.

Bitcoin's price action over comparable 12-month windows has typically seen volatility ranging from 30 to 80 per cent, though directional bias depends heavily on macroeconomic conditions and regulatory developments in major markets. Historical precedent suggests that noon ET closures on major exchanges rarely deviate sharply from broader daily trading ranges, making intraday manipulation unlikely. The current 0 per cent crowd probability indicates either extreme scepticism about a specific price level or insufficient trading interest in this particular settlement date.

Key variables affecting Bitcoin's trajectory into May 2026 include Federal Reserve policy signals, institutional adoption rates, and any significant regulatory announcements from the SEC or international bodies. Traders should monitor quarterly earnings reports from major cryptocurrency custodians and exchanges, as well as any shifts in corporate treasury allocations. Geopolitical developments affecting energy costs—critical to mining economics—and movements in traditional risk assets will likely correlate with Bitcoin's price direction during the settlement window.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Sport Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.