Bitcoin above 2026 on June 17?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

This market resolves based on Bitcoin's price at noon Eastern Time on 17 June 2026, using the one-minute candle close on Binance's BTC/USDT pair. The 57% implied probability reflects moderate conviction that Bitcoin will trade above the specified threshold at that precise moment, rather than predicting directional movement over longer periods.

Bitcoin's intraday volatility at fixed timestamps has historically been substantial. Comparing similar noon-ET snapshots across prior years shows swings of 2–4% common within single trading sessions, particularly around macroeconomic announcements or Federal Reserve communications. The current probability sits near the midpoint, suggesting the market perceives the threshold as close to expected spot price, with roughly equal odds of a minor upside or downside deviation by mid-June 2026.

Key variables affecting the noon close include overnight Asian trading momentum, any US economic data releases scheduled for that morning, and broader risk sentiment in equities markets. Bitcoin's correlation with equity indices has strengthened during periods of monetary tightening; traders should monitor Federal Reserve guidance and inflation expectations in the months preceding the settlement date. Binance's liquidity at noon ET typically remains robust, reducing the risk of execution-related price distortions at the resolution timestamp.

Methodology

We track Bitcoin above 2026 on June 17? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Sport Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Sport Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.