Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
PolyGram Pick polygram.ink |
0% | 100% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open on PolyGram → |
Polymarket polymarket.com |
0% | 100% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open on PolyGram → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open on PolyGram → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open on PolyGram → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open on PolyGram → |
Live odds for Polymarket-based markets come from the Polygon order book. Non-Polymarket venues show attributes only; clicking any row opens the market on PolyGram.
Active sub-markets
| <70,000 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 70,000-72,000 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 72,000-74,000 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 74,000-76,000 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
| 76,000-78,000 | 100% YES | 0% NO |
| 78,000-80,000 | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Market context
Bitcoin will be priced off the Binance BTC/USDT 1-minute candle close at 12:00 ET on 22 May, so the relevant print is the noon U.S. eastern snapshot rather than the wider day’s trading range. The market has been leaning to the low-$70,000s to high-$70,000s, with outside commentary and prediction-market pricing clustering around the mid-to-upper $70,000s. That sits well below Bitcoin’s 2025 peak and below the near-$80,000 levels seen in early May, but above the early-2026 trough cited by price-history trackers.
For context, Bitcoin has been volatile enough that small intraday moves can shift a bracket by several thousand dollars, which matters when settlement depends on a single minute candle. Recent reference points include a May 17 Statista print of $78,135.01 and other market trackers showing Bitcoin around the high-$70,000s this week, while historical highs near $126,000 in October 2025 underline how far the asset can move over a few months. A 0% YES probability on a binary market of this sort usually reflects stale pricing, not certainty; the important question is whether the noon ET candle lands inside the chosen range.
Traders should watch for anything that can move spot BTC into the noon fix: U.S. macro releases, sudden risk-on or risk-off moves in equities, and any crypto-specific news flow before the settlement window closes. Binance uses the BTC/USDT 1-minute close, so the exact print around 16:00 UTC is decisive; if the price lands on a bracket boundary, the higher range wins. That makes the final minutes before noon ET more important than the day’s open.
Methodology
This page reviews Bitcoin price on May 22? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at PolyGram — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.
Resolution & payout
Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.
Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?
- Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
Trade Bitcoin price on May 22? on PolyGram
Live order book, 0% fees, USDC settlement in seconds.
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