Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Sport Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| ↓ 60,000 | 100% |
| ↑ 65,000 | 100% |
| ↑ 90,000 | 100% |
| ↓ 85,000 | 100% |
| ↓ 75,000 | 100% |
| ↓ 65,000 | 100% |
| ↓ 60,000 | 100% |
| ↑ 70,000 | 100% |
| ↑ 75,000 | 100% |
| ↑ 80,000 | 100% |
| ↑ 65,000 | 89% |
| ↓ 55,000 | 71% |
| ↑ 70,000 | 70% |
| ↓ 50,000 | 51% |
| ↑ 75,000 | 47% |
| ↓ 45,000 | 37% |
| ↑ 80,000 | 33% |
| ↓ 40,000 | 23% |
| ↑ 85,000 | 22% |
| ↑ 90,000 | 19% |
| ↓ 35,000 | 13% |
| ↑ 95,000 | 12% |
| ↑ 100,000 | 11% |
| ↓ 30,000 | 10% |
| ↑ 110,000 | 8% |
| ↑ 120,000 | 6% |
| ↓ 25,000 | 6% |
| ↓ 20,000 | 5% |
| ↑ 140,000 | 4% |
| ↑ 130,000 | 4% |
| ↓ 15,000 | 4% |
| ↑ 150,000 | 3% |
| ↓ 10,000 | 3% |
| ↑ 200,000 | 2% |
| ↑ 190,000 | 2% |
| ↑ 180,000 | 2% |
| ↑ 170,000 | 2% |
| ↑ 160,000 | 2% |
| ↓ 5,000 | 2% |
| ↑ 250,000 | 1% |
| ↑ 500,000 | 1% |
| ↑ 1,000,000 | 1% |
| ↓ 60,000 | 0% |
Market context
Traders on decentralised prediction markets give 100% probability to what price will bitcoin hit in 2026?. What price will Bitcoin hit before 2027?
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for What price will Bitcoin hit in 2026?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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