Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Sport Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
55% | 45% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
55% | 45% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| December 31 | 55% |
| September 30 | 35% |
| June 30 | 0% |
Market context
STRC is trading below the $100 level but has already shown it can get close, with its 52-week range reaching 100.42 and recent quotes clustered in the high-80s to low-90s.[19][20] TradingView shows the stock around 80.84 on its NASDAQ:STRC chart, while Yahoo Finance and Investing.com both place it below par, which means the market still needs a sizeable move before any one-minute candle can print a high of at least $100.[18][19][20]
That makes the current 0% crowd-implied probability easier to read as a statement about short-horizon execution, not long-run fundamentals. Comparable commentary has emphasised that STRC has repeatedly traded below the company’s intended $99–$100 band even as management has kept that target in view, and CryptoBriefing noted prediction markets had already re-rated year-end odds materially higher when the stock moved nearer par.[2][3][10] In that sense, a spike to $100 is not impossible, but it has so far depended on a sharp re-pricing rather than a steady grind.
For traders, the key catalysts are company-specific rather than macro: any Strategy update on STRC’s dividend policy, capital allocation, or preferred-stock management could change sentiment quickly, especially after Michael Saylor reiterated the firm’s objective for STRC to trade between $99 and $100.[3] Bitcoin price action also matters indirectly because recent coverage linked STRC’s rebound to steadier Bitcoin trading and a larger cash cushion, and those same factors can affect how aggressively the stock is bought on dips.[5][9] With the settlement rule requiring a 1-minute TradingView candle high at or above $100, intraday liquidity and any brief gap-up around news will matter more than the close.
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for STRC hits $100 by…. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
Trade STRC hits $100 by… on Sport Prediction
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