Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Sport Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| ↑ 1,850 | 100% |
| ↑ 1,800 | 100% |
| ↑ 1,900 | 33% |
| ↑ 1,950 | 4% |
| ↑ 2,000 | 1% |
| ↓ 1,750 | 1% |
| ↑ 2,100 | 0% |
| ↑ 2,050 | 0% |
| ↓ 1,700 | 0% |
| ↓ 1,650 | 0% |
| ↓ 1,600 | 0% |
| ↓ 1,550 | 0% |
| ↓ 1,500 | 0% |
| ↓ 1,450 | 0% |
Market context
Ethereum is trading near $1,877 today, with the settlement window for the July 14 price prediction closing tomorrow. The crowd-implied probability of 0% YES suggests traders believe the asset will not reach the implied threshold price set for the market, likely a level significantly above current levels.
Historical data shows Ethereum peaked at $2,942 one year ago but has since retraced, currently hovering around $1,779–$1,877 depending on the exchange [2][3][4]. Comparable cases in crypto markets indicate that when prices fall over 35% from yearly highs without a major catalyst, breakout rallies above prior peaks are rare within short windows. The 0% probability aligns with this pattern of consolidation rather than explosive upside.
Traders should monitor upcoming network upgrade announcements, regulatory developments in the US and EU, and macroeconomic data releases that could shift risk appetite. A recent Binance overview notes Ethereum’s role in DeFi and smart contracts remains central, but price momentum depends on external liquidity conditions [6]. No major protocol upgrades are scheduled before July 15, limiting immediate catalysts for a sharp price surge.
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for What price will Ethereum hit on July 14?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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