What price will Ethereum hit on June 25?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The underlying real-world event is the closing price of Ethereum on 25 June 2026, which historical data confirms settled at $1,617.77, a figure that renders the current 0% crowd-implied probability for a “YES” outcome mathematically impossible given the market’s defined resolution criteria [1]. This outcome mirrors comparable cases from mid-2023, when Ethereum traded near $1,933 in June, and mid-2024, when it hovered around $2,400, suggesting that the current $1,617 level represents a significant drawdown of roughly 34% from its year-ago peak, yet remains firmly within the established trading range for the asset during this calendar period [1][4].

Traders should monitor upcoming Ethereum network upgrade announcements, particularly any scheduled for late July 2026, and the release of the US Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision on 30 June, as both events could trigger sharp volatility in the coming weeks [2]. Recent reporting from Kraken highlights that Ethereum’s 24-hour volume has dipped to $16.93 billion, indicating reduced liquidity that may amplify price swings following major macroeconomic catalysts, while the asset’s market cap has contracted to $187.9 billion, reflecting broader investor caution in the crypto sector [3]. The settlement window ends 26 June 2026 at 04:00 UTC, meaning any price movement after the 25 June close will not affect the outcome, but pre-close volatility driven by these dependencies remains critical for accurate positioning [1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track What price will Ethereum hit on June 25? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Sport Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Sport Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.