What price will Bitcoin hit on June 13?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Bitcoin's price movement on 13 June 2026 remains subject to macroeconomic conditions, regulatory announcements, and technical trading patterns that will unfold over the next eighteen months. The 1% implied probability suggests the market assigns very low likelihood to a specific price target being reached on that exact date, reflecting both the difficulty of pinpointing intraday or daily price levels and the inherent volatility of cryptocurrency markets across multi-year horizons.

Historical precedent shows that single-day Bitcoin price targets settle rarely when probability is this compressed. During comparable low-probability events in crypto prediction markets—such as specific price milestones on predetermined dates—outcomes typically cluster around either clear technical support/resistance levels or moments coinciding with major news events. The 18-month window to settlement allows for substantial price discovery, but the specificity of a single calendar date makes execution risk substantial. Previous markets tracking Bitcoin's daily closes have demonstrated that even volatile trading sessions rarely produce outsized moves without accompanying catalyst events.

Traders monitoring this market should track Federal Reserve policy signals, institutional adoption announcements, and regulatory developments in major jurisdictions, as these have historically driven multi-week Bitcoin rallies or corrections. Scheduled events such as Bitcoin halving cycles, major exchange listings, or significant geopolitical developments could alter volatility expectations. Technical analysis of Bitcoin's longer-term trend—currently influenced by macroeconomic sentiment and real-rate expectations—will inform whether June 2026 price action aligns with bull or bear regime conditions closer to settlement.

Methodology

We track What price will Bitcoin hit on June 13? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Sport Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Sport Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.