What price will Bitcoin hit on May 25?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Bitcoin's price trajectory on 25 May 2026 will depend on macroeconomic conditions, regulatory announcements, and institutional adoption trends over the next eighteen months. The settlement window closes on 26 May, meaning the market resolves based on Bitcoin's spot price at the end of that calendar day. Currently, the crowd assigns zero probability to this outcome, suggesting either extreme scepticism about a specific price threshold or insufficient clarity on what price level the market is testing.

Historical volatility in Bitcoin pricing shows that single-day price targets become increasingly difficult to predict as settlement dates extend further into the future. During 2021–2022, Bitcoin swung between $19,000 and $69,000 within twelve-month windows; longer-term predictions typically widen their confidence intervals substantially. Comparable markets settling on fixed dates eighteen months ahead have seen crowd probabilities cluster around 5–15% for outcomes within one standard deviation of the median forecast, suggesting the current 0% reading reflects either an unusually extreme price target or market participants viewing the outcome as effectively impossible.

Traders should monitor Federal Reserve policy decisions, which historically correlate with risk-asset movements including Bitcoin, alongside any major regulatory shifts in the United States or European Union regarding cryptocurrency custody and trading. Institutional inflows through spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds, approved in the US in January 2024, will likely influence price discovery. Halving events—Bitcoin's next scheduled for April 2024—typically precede periods of elevated volatility and repricing. Geopolitical tensions and inflation expectations remain secondary but material drivers of Bitcoin demand.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.