What price will Bitcoin hit on May 29?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Bitcoin's price trajectory on 29 May 2026 will depend on macroeconomic conditions, regulatory developments, and institutional adoption trends across the preceding eighteen months. The settlement window closes on 30 May, meaning the market resolves based on spot price data from major exchanges during the final trading day of May 2026.

Historical Bitcoin price movements show volatility clustering around Federal Reserve policy announcements, inflation data releases, and geopolitical events. In comparable periods—such as May 2021, when Bitcoin fell from $58,000 to $30,000 within weeks following Chinese regulatory crackdowns—single-day price swings of 10–15% have occurred without warning. The current 0% probability assigned to this market suggests traders expect Bitcoin to remain within a narrow band or that the specific price threshold is set at an extreme outlier level relative to consensus forecasts.

Key catalysts through May 2026 include US monetary policy decisions (particularly Federal Reserve rate guidance), corporate earnings reports from major Bitcoin holders, and any legislative action on cryptocurrency regulation in the US or EU. Bloomberg reported in late 2024 that institutional inflows into Bitcoin spot ETFs had accelerated, potentially dampening extreme volatility. Traders should monitor quarterly inflation prints, which typically drive broader asset repricing, and any announcements from major central banks regarding digital currency frameworks that could shift long-term demand dynamics.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Sport Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Sport Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Sport Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Sport Prediction?

Zero. Sport Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.