Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Sport Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
0% | 100% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
0% | 100% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| ↑ 2,100 | 0% |
| ↑ 2,050 | 0% |
| ↑ 2,000 | 0% |
| ↑ 1,950 | 0% |
| ↑ 1,900 | 0% |
| ↑ 1,850 | 0% |
| ↑ 1,800 | 0% |
| ↓ 1,750 | 0% |
| ↓ 1,700 | 0% |
| ↓ 1,650 | 0% |
| ↓ 1,600 | 0% |
| ↓ 1,550 | 0% |
| ↓ 1,500 | 0% |
| ↓ 1,450 | 0% |
Market context
Ethereum's price action on 13 July 2026 will depend on macroeconomic conditions, regulatory developments, and broader cryptocurrency market sentiment in the months leading to that date. The 0% crowd probability reflects genuine uncertainty about which price level the market will settle on, given the wide range of plausible outcomes across a 19-month forecast window. Historical volatility in Ethereum's trading has regularly produced daily swings exceeding 5–10%, meaning any specific price target carries substantial execution risk.
Comparable precedent comes from previous Ethereum price forecasts with similar time horizons. During 2021–2022, predictions made 18 months in advance proved highly sensitive to shifts in Federal Reserve policy, institutional adoption announcements, and regulatory clarity from major jurisdictions. The 2022 Ethereum Merge, a scheduled technical upgrade, moved the needle significantly once its timing became certain. Traders should note that long-dated crypto price predictions typically widen their confidence intervals as settlement approaches, reflecting accumulated information about on-chain activity, exchange inflows, and macro conditions.
Key catalysts through mid-2026 include potential US regulatory frameworks governing staking and decentralised finance, major institutional custody announcements, and Ethereum's development roadmap execution—particularly any consensus-layer upgrades or scaling solutions reaching mainnet. Spot Ethereum ETF approvals in major markets have historically influenced price discovery. Macroeconomic factors, particularly interest rate expectations and risk appetite in equities markets, will likely dominate price direction. Traders should monitor quarterly earnings seasons and central bank communications as indirect proxies for broader asset-class sentiment.
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for What price will Ethereum hit on July 13?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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