Fed Decision in June?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The Federal Reserve’s June 16–17 meeting will determine whether the upper bound of the target federal funds range is left unchanged or moved by 25 basis points or more. The market is pricing a 1% chance of any increase, which is consistent with the Fed’s recent run of pauses and with the broader view that policy is already restrictive after the March and April decisions to hold rates steady. Comparable FOMC meetings in 2026 have produced no change, and that backdrop has kept June expectations anchored near zero for a hike.

For traders, the key inputs are the inflation and labour prints due before the meeting, plus any shift in Fed guidance from public remarks in early June. A hotter-than-expected CPI or a renewed move in wages and activity would be the cleanest route to reprice the meeting, but markets currently see little urgency to tighten, with several recent outlooks pointing to on-hold policy for the rest of the year. The Fed’s own calendar confirms the meeting dates, and the resolution will depend on the upper bound of the range set after the June gathering, with any non-standard move rounded to the nearest 25 basis points if needed.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.