S&P 500 (SPY) closes above … on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

The S&P 500 exchange-traded fund (SPY) will close on 13 July 2026, and this market asks whether its closing price will exceed a threshold value yet to be specified. The settlement window closes at 20:00 UTC on that date, capturing the final trading price after US market hours. A 0% crowd probability suggests either the threshold has been set above realistic price targets or market participants view the outcome as effectively impossible given current conditions.

Historical precedent matters here. The S&P 500 has closed above its 200-day moving average roughly 70% of the time over rolling five-year periods, whilst closing above its 52-week high occurs far less frequently—typically 5–15% of trading days. If the threshold sits near current spot prices or recent highs, the probability reflects genuine difficulty in achieving that level. Comparable markets on index performance show that when thresholds are set within one standard deviation of current prices, implied probabilities typically range from 20–40%, so a 0% reading indicates either an extreme threshold or a technical issue with market setup.

Traders should monitor macroeconomic data releases scheduled between now and mid-July 2026, particularly US inflation reports and Federal Reserve communications, which historically move the index by 1–3% in either direction. Corporate earnings season activity, if ongoing, will also influence daily volatility. The specific threshold value—once clarified—will be the decisive factor; without it, assessing whether the crowd probability reflects rational pricing or market dysfunction remains impossible.

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for S&P 500 (SPY) closes above … on July 13?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

Are prediction markets better than sports betting?

Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.

What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.

What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?

Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.

Can I import form data and lineups?

This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.