What will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit in May 2026?

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Market context

WTI crude is trading near the high-$90s after a sharp slide from the mid-May spike, with CME’s front-month contract last quoted at 98.99 on 20 May. The market has already shown that May can be very volatile: WTI was above $116 at the start of the month, but prices have since been pushed around by geopolitics and inventory data. A 1% yes price implies the market sees only a small chance of WTI touching the specified level before month-end, which fits a contract that would need an unusually large move rather than a routine weekly swing.

Comparable episodes suggest that the main risk is a sudden energy shock, not a slow drift. On 20 May, Barchart reported WTI and RBOB both fell sharply after President Trump said the US was in the “final stages” with Iran, raising hopes that oil could flow more freely through the Strait of Hormuz. That kind of single headline move can knock several dollars off crude in one session, but sustained direction still depends on whether supply disruption, sanctions enforcement, or a broader Middle East ceasefire actually changes physical flows.

Traders should watch Iran-related headlines, any formal US statements on negotiations, and the next set of inventory and product-demand figures, as those have been driving short-term price action. J.P. Morgan has said it expects Brent to average around $60/bbl in 2026 on soft supply-demand fundamentals, while warning that protracted disruptions are unlikely, which frames the broader medium-term bias as bearish even after spikes. For this market, the key dependency is whether geopolitical easing continues and whether the inventory backdrop confirms that the latest rally has already overshot fundamentals.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

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FAQ

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How does resolution work?

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