China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q2 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

China’s second-quarter 2026 GDP growth is officially recorded at 4.3% year-on-year, the weakest quarterly pace since late 2022, as weak domestic demand and an oil shock from the Iran war offset stronger exports and production[1][2]. This print falls below the government’s 4.5%–5% annual target and misses the 4.5% consensus forecast from Reuters economists, reinforcing expectations for further policy stimulus to address persistent imbalances[2][3]. The 0.2% shortfall from forecasts and the sequential slowdown from Q1’s 5.0% growth frame the current 0% implied probability for higher ranges as a rational market read on the confirmed downside surprise[1][4].

Traders should monitor upcoming announcements on fiscal stimulus, particularly any new infrastructure spending or property-sector support measures, as Beijing now has latitude to adjust reforms after setting a record-low growth target[8][9]. Key dependencies include the release of June fixed-asset investment and retail sales data alongside GDP, which showed retail sales rebounding 1% in June after a prior drop[1]. The World Bank’s July update projects growth easing to 4.4% in 2026 and 4.3% in 2027, suggesting the 4.3% Q2 print may be the base case for the remainder of the year unless stimulus materially shifts the trajectory[6]. With the settlement window closing on 16 July, no further data revisions are expected before resolution.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Sports-specific comparison page for China GDP growth (Y/Y) in Q2 2026?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.

Resolution & payout

Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.

FAQ

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When do sports markets resolve?

Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.

Can I bet on individual matches?

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What are live sports odds on Polymarket?

Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.

How fast do sports winnings settle?

Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.