Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Sport Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 2 Winner | 100% |
| Match Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: HOTU (-3.5) vs Esport Academy Copenhagen (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 100% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 27.5 | 100% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 30.5 | 100% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 33.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Winner | 0% |
| Map Handicap: HOTU (-1.5) vs Esport Academy Copenhagen (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: HOTU (-3.5) vs Esport Academy Copenhagen (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: HOTU (-3.5) vs Esport Academy Copenhagen (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: HOTU (-9.5) vs Esport Academy Copenhagen (+9.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: HOTU (-6.5) vs Esport Academy Copenhagen (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: HOTU (-6.5) vs Esport Academy Copenhagen (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: HOTU (-9.5) vs Esport Academy Copenhagen (+9.5) | 0% |
| Map Handicap: EAC (-1.5) vs HOTU (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: HOTU (-6.5) vs Esport Academy Copenhagen (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Esport Academy Copenhagen (-3.5) vs HOTU (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 39.5 | 0% |
Market context
Esport Academy Copenhagen’s decider against HOTU is a best-of-three in Group A of Stake Pulse Beat I, with the market currently implying a 0% chance of a YES resolution. That reading is unusually extreme for a single CS2 match and is best treated as a statement about pricing rather than certainty, especially in a small field where one upset can reset the bracket quickly. Liquipedia shows the group-stage schedule and confirms the decider slot after the opening and winners/elimination matches, while bookmaker listings also had HOTU installed as a strong pre-match favourite in its opening fixture, suggesting the market is reacting to perceived team strength and bracket position rather than broad uncertainty.[8][13]
Comparable academy-versus-established-roster spots often trade sharply against the academy side when information is thin, but they can move fast if the underdog shows clean T side rounds, stable vetoes, or a favourable map pool. In this case, the main comparison point is Esport Academy Copenhagen’s recent match activity in the same event, where they were already active in the group bracket and had a scheduled series against G2 Ares, indicating that the decider’s context depends heavily on how much map time and momentum each side has built earlier in the day.[1][10]
For traders, the key catalysts are the actual group results, any late schedule slippage, and whether either team changes line-up between the opening match and the decider. The event listings place HOTU and Esport Academy Copenhagen in the same four-team group on 31 July, so the market depends on bracket flow and not just baseline team quality; a delay beyond seven days or a match not played would force the market to 50-50 under the rules.[1][8]
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs HOTU (BO3) - Stake Pulse Beat I Group A. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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