Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Liquid (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group B

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

TheMongolz and Liquid are set for a lower-bracket best-of-three in Shanghai after both sides were pushed into survival mode in Group B. The current crowd price of 100% for TheMongolz reflects the way these teams have fared against each other and against comparable opposition this season: TheMongolz have generally travelled better on LAN, with a steadier map pool and recent wins over higher-ranked teams, while Liquid have been more volatile and have struggled to turn strong individual rounds into series control. In that context, a one-sided probability is not unusual when one roster arrives with recent top-tier results and the other is coming off a shaky group-stage run.

A useful comparison is TheMongolz’s earlier run against Liquid in March, when they won 2-0 at BLAST Open Rotterdam; bookmakers also had them clear favourites then, and the result matched the market. That does not make this rematch automatic, but it does frame why traders have been willing to price TheMongolz heavily: recent head-to-heads, form on the big stage, and better continuity in their roster and map pool all point in the same direction. Liquid’s path depends more on whether they can force comfortable vetoes and avoid falling behind early on the opening map.

The main catalysts are squad availability, veto order, and whether either team has had to play earlier tiebreak-style or elimination games that could affect prep time. Recent reporting from Dust2.in noted TheMongolz had already been sent to the lower bracket after losing to B8, which means their path through the group has already been tested, while Liquid’s own schedule around the 3DMAX match is part of the same bracket context. Any late roster change, map pool shift, or schedule slippage would matter more here than the tournament label itself, because this market settles on the match winner only if the BO3 is actually completed.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Liquid (BO3) - CS Asia Championships Group B on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

PolyGram is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on PolyGram?

Zero. PolyGram routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.