Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Sport Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 2 Winner | 100% |
| Match Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: FORZE Reload (-3.5) vs Revise (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 27.5 | 100% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Revise (-3.5) vs FORZE Reload (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Winner | 0% |
| Map Handicap: FORZE.R (-1.5) vs Revise (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: FORZE Reload (-3.5) vs Revise (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: FORZE Reload (-3.5) vs Revise (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: FORZE Reload (-6.5) vs Revise (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map Handicap: REV (-1.5) vs FORZE Reload (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Revise (-3.5) vs FORZE Reload (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 30.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: FORZE Reload (-6.5) vs Revise (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Revise (-3.5) vs FORZE Reload (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Revise (-6.5) vs FORZE Reload (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 27.5 | 0% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: FORZE Reload (-6.5) vs Revise (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Revise (-6.5) vs FORZE Reload (+6.5) | 0% |
Market context
Revise and FORZE Reload meet in a play-in fixture for the Exort Fiesta Closed Qualifier on 17 August 2026, with the winner advancing further into the tournament structure. The best-of-three format gives either side realistic paths to victory, though the current 0% implied probability for Revise suggests the market has settled heavily on FORZE Reload as favourites.
FORZE Reload's recent trajectory in closed qualifiers has established them as consistent performers in mid-tier competitive Counter-Strike, whilst Revise remain a less-documented roster in comparable tournament settings. Historical precedent from similar play-in matchups shows that teams entering such fixtures without recent LAN results or documented form often trade at suppressed odds regardless of actual squad composition or preparation depth. The absence of public scrim data or roster announcements from either side ahead of the qualifier makes baseline comparison difficult; markets frequently default to favouring the organisation with stronger prior tournament visibility when information gaps exist.
Traders should monitor for any roster changes, coaching staff updates, or stand-in announcements from either team before the 17 August start time. FORZE Reload's participation in preceding online qualifiers or regional events in early August would provide concrete evidence of current form and player availability. Similarly, any public statement from Revise regarding preparation or recent bootcamp activity could shift the underlying matchup dynamics. The settlement window closes at 23:00 ET on 17 August, with a 14-day postponement window extending to 31 August; confirmation of the scheduled 13:00 ET start time should arrive within 48 hours of the fixture.
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for Counter-Strike: Revise vs FORZE Reload (BO3) - Exort Fiesta Closed Qualifier: Series #1 Play-In. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
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