Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Sport Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 2 Winner | 100% |
| Match Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Sharks (-3.5) vs BESTIA (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Sharks (-3.5) vs BESTIA (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Sharks (-6.5) vs BESTIA (+6.5) | 90% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Sharks (-9.5) vs BESTIA (+9.5) | 90% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 10% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 1% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 1% |
| Map 1 Winner | 0% |
| Map Handicap: SHK (-1.5) vs BESTIA (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Sharks (-3.5) vs BESTIA (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map Handicap: BST (-1.5) vs Sharks (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: BESTIA (-3.5) vs Sharks (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: BESTIA (-6.5) vs Sharks (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Sharks (-6.5) vs BESTIA (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Sharks (-9.5) vs BESTIA (+9.5) | 0% |
Market context
Sharks and BESTIA face off in the RES Showdown South America semifinals on 10 July, with the Brazilian side holding a decisive historical edge over their Argentine rivals. Over 21 recorded CS2 encounters, Sharks have won 13 matches (62%) compared to BESTIA’s eight, including a 2-0 victory in their most recent CCT Season 3 meeting earlier this year [1][4]. This head-to-head dominance mirrors past regional playoff dynamics where historically superior teams with higher Tips.GG ratings (#39 for Sharks versus #62 for BESTIA) consistently overcome lower-ranked opponents in BO3 formats, even when the latter carry a short win streak [4].
Traders should monitor pre-match roster announcements and any delay notifications, as the market resolves to a 50-50 split if the match is cancelled or delayed beyond seven days without a winner [3][8]. Sharks’ current three-match win streak and 80% win rate over the past 30 days contrast with BESTIA’s single-game streak and 67% rate, suggesting form aligns with historical probability [4]. No coaching changes or key absences have been reported in recent beat coverage, but HLTV and Dust2.us confirm the match is scheduled for 23:00 UTC with no streams currently listed, meaning live updates may be sparse until play begins [5][6].
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for Counter-Strike: Sharks vs BESTIA (BO3) - RES Showdown South America Playoffs. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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