Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Sport Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
57% | 43% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
57% | 43% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs Sharks (+3.5) | 57% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs Sharks (+3.5) | 52% |
| Map 1 Winner | 50% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 50% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 50% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: DENDELE CS (-3.5) vs FURIA (+3.5) | 50% |
| Map Handicap: DENDELE CS (-1.5) vs FURIA (+1.5) | 50% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: DENDELE CS (-6.5) vs FURIA (+6.5) | 50% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 47% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 44% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-3.5) vs Sharks (+3.5) | 41% |
| Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs Sharks (+1.5) | 36% |
| Match Winner | 28% |
| Map 2 Winner | 26% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 25% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: FURIA (-6.5) vs DENDELE CS (+6.5) | 5% |
Market context
Sharks face FURIA in a Round of 32 best-of-three match at the BLAST Bounty Qualifier on 24 July, with the fixture scheduled for 1:30PM ET. The 28% implied probability for Sharks reflects their status as underdogs against a Brazilian side that has maintained stronger placements in recent international tournaments. FURIA's roster consistency and map pool depth have positioned them as favourites in most recent matchups against lower-seeded opposition.
Historical precedent suggests that Sharks' underdog odds are defensible given their inconsistent performances in 2024. The team has struggled to maintain form across consecutive tournaments, whilst FURIA has demonstrated more reliable qualification rates and deeper playoff runs. When similarly ranked sides meet in BLAST qualifiers, the higher-seeded team converts approximately 70–75% of the time, which aligns with current market pricing. However, Sharks have occasionally capitalised on preparation time and map-specific strategies to upset favourites in single-elimination formats.
Traders should monitor roster confirmations and any last-minute coaching adjustments in the 48 hours before the match. FURIA's recent lineup stability contrasts with Sharks' periodic player availability issues, which have affected their preparation depth. The scheduling dependency is straightforward—the match must conclude by 31 July to avoid the seven-day delay clause triggering a 50-50 resolution. Any announcement of player absences or technical delays from BLAST's official channels would materially shift the probability, particularly given Sharks' reliance on specific in-game leaders for tactical execution.
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for Counter-Strike: Sharks vs FURIA (BO3) - BLAST Bounty Qualifier. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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