Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Sport Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 1 Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: 3DMAX (-3.5) vs Walczaki (+3.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Walczaki (-3.5) vs 3DMAX (+3.5) | 100% |
| Match Winner | 76% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Walczaki (-3.5) vs 3DMAX (+3.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: Walczaki (-9.5) vs 3DMAX (+9.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: 3DMAX (-6.5) vs Walczaki (+6.5) | 10% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Walczaki (-6.5) vs 3DMAX (+6.5) | 10% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: Walczaki (-3.5) vs 3DMAX (+3.5) | 10% |
| Map 2 Winner | 0% |
| Map Handicap: 3DMAX (-1.5) vs Walczaki (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 0% |
| Map Handicap: WAL (-1.5) vs 3DMAX (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: 3DMAX (-3.5) vs Walczaki (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Walczaki (-6.5) vs 3DMAX (+6.5) | 0% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
Market context
Walczaki and 3DMAX meet in a best-of-three elimination match in the StarLadder StarSeries European Qualifier Group C, with 3DMAX generally treated as the more established side. Market and match data point to a fairly tight but one-sided profile: 3DMAX are listed as the bookmaker favourite, while Walczaki come in with stronger regional momentum but a shallower track record against higher-tier European opposition.[5][7]
The current 100% YES crowd price is best read against the recent form split rather than as a statement that the series is already decided. Walczaki have won just 1 of their last 5 matches, and their recent route into this elimination game came after a loss to magic.[4][3] 3DMAX have also been uneven, but they have still posted 2 wins from their last 5 and are rated slightly higher in current rankings, which fits the market’s expectation that their broader experience should matter in a BO3.[4]
For traders, the main catalysts are roster confirmation, map veto news, and any schedule drift around the qualifier bracket. The listed line-ups are intact on match pages, with 3DMAX featuring Maka, Lucky, misutaaa, Kursy and Graviti, while Walczaki’s core includes SaMey, Sk1tt, bajmi, moonwalk and olimp.[5] If the match is delayed beyond the settlement window or not completed as scheduled, the market rules point to a 50-50 outcome, so timing matters as much as the in-game result.[6]
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs 3DMAX (BO3) - StarLadder StarSeries European Qualifier Group C. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
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