Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Sport Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Game 1 Winner | 100% |
| Game 2 Winner | 100% |
| Match Winner | 100% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 2? | 100% |
| Game Handicap: FLC (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 60.5 in Game 2? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 2? | 100% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 90% |
| Ends in Daytime | 50% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 50% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Rampage | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 45% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 1? | 24% |
| Ends in Daytime | 10% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 10% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 10% |
| Any Player Rampage | 10% |
| Ends in Daytime | 10% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 10% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 1? | 10% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 1? | 10% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 75.5 in Game 2? | 10% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 1% |
| Any Player Rampage | 1% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 1% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 60.5 in Game 1? | 1% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 70.5 in Game 2? | 1% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% |
| Game Handicap: BB (-1.5) vs Team Falcons (+1.5) | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 65.5 in Game 2? | 0% |
Market context
Team Falcons meet BetBoom Team in a best-of-three upper-bracket semi-final, and the market’s 80% YES pricing reflects a strong favourite rather than a lock. Recent matchup data cuts both ways: one current preview gives Falcons a 61% all-time edge in the head-to-head, yet BetBoom have won three of the last five meetings and have looked stronger in the shorter window, which is why some models have leaned towards a split series or even a draw in best-of-two contexts.[1][2]
For traders, the key read is whether Falcons can convert their higher long-run baseline into a clean BO3 win, or whether BetBoom’s recent head-to-head edge carries over into map one and forces a longer series. Falcons’ recent win rate has dipped to 56% over the last six months from 66% over the last 12 months, while BetBoom’s shorter-term figures are reported as improving, which is consistent with a market that still favours Falcons but prices in meaningful upset risk.[2][5]
The main catalysts now are late team news, any delay to the scheduled start, and whether either side has had an uninterrupted run through the bracket. No roster changes or coach switches are flagged in the available match previews, so the most relevant live inputs are confirmation of line-ups, any last-minute travel or technical issues, and the result of game one, which will matter disproportionately in a series where both teams have recent evidence of winning the matchup.[1][5]
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for Dota 2: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - 1win Essence Playoffs. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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