Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Sport Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Game 1 Winner | 100% |
| Game 2 Winner | 100% |
| Match Winner | 100% |
| Game Handicap: GLYPH (-1.5) vs Zero Tenacity (+1.5) | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 1? | 51% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 40.5 in Game 1? | 51% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 35.5 in Game 2? | 51% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2? | 51% |
| Ends in Daytime | 50% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 50% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Rampage | 50% |
| Ends in Daytime | 50% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 50% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Rampage | 50% |
| Ends in Daytime | 50% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 50% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Rampage | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 1? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 35.5 in Game 1? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 65.5 in Game 1? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 2? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 2? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 40.5 in Game 2? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 1? | 26% |
| Game Handicap: Z10 (-1.5) vs GLYPH (+1.5) | 1% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 0% |
Market context
GLYPH meet Zero Tenacity in a Games of the Future Group C best-of-three, with the market currently pricing a near-certain GLYPH win despite the matchup being closely balanced on recent form. Strafe lists GLYPH at around 71% to win, with GLYPH ranked higher than Zero Tenacity and holding the more established roster profile, while dltv notes GLYPH had a stable line-up for 39 days and Zero Tenacity had a recent change, replacing MikSa` with infernal.[2][8] The same sources also show why the 100% crowd price is hard to reconcile with the underlying numbers: GLYPH have lost three of their last five, while Zero Tenacity have won three of their last five and arrive with the cleaner recent sequence.[8]
The clearest comparable frame is that both sides already opened the event strongly, which reduces the likelihood of a one-sided misread based only on the bracket. Coverage of the group reported GLYPH beating Enjoy 2-0 and Zero Tenacity beating Yakult Brothers 2-0 in their earlier Group C matches, so this is a winners’ match between teams that have already handled their first test.[15] Strafe’s schedule page also places Group C winners’ matches on 1 August, which matches the planned timing and suggests the main trader risk is not a format issue but whether line-ups and start times hold as expected.[12]
What matters now is confirmation of the draft-day roster and whether either team announces last-minute substitution or timing changes before the series starts. dltv identifies the active GLYPH and Zero Tenacity line-ups and notes the recent Zero Tenacity roster adjustment, making any further personnel update the most important catalyst to watch.[8] If the match begins on schedule, the settlement risk is low; the main edge case is a late cancellation, delay, or a series interruption that pushes resolution into the market’s fallback rules rather than a clean GLYPH or Zero Tenacity result.[1]
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for Dota 2: GLYPH vs Zero Tenacity (BO3) - Games of the Future Group C. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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