Dota 2: MOUZ vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs

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Active sub-markets

Market context

MOUZ and Yellow Submarine are playing an upper-bracket round-one best-of-three in the Europe Closed Qualifier playoffs, with the market currently shading MOUZ just below a coin-flip at 40% YES. Their recent head-to-head is split enough to justify caution: Yellow Submarine beat MOUZ 2-1 in May 2026, while earlier recorded meetings in 2025 and 2024 also went Yellow Submarine’s way, including another 2-1 series.[2][1]

That history matters because these teams have often met in qualifier-style environments where draft adaptability and late-game execution decide close series. Yellow Submarine’s broader profile is that of a rebuilt, young roster that has repeatedly shown qualifying potential but has also been inconsistent at the final hurdle; Liquipedia notes the side has been rebuilt twice since 2023 and has often reached the later stages of qualifier brackets without converting them into stable LAN qualification.[4] For a market priced at 40%, the main historical read is that MOUZ are not being treated as clear favourites despite home-style seeding, because the direct series record and Yellow Submarine’s upset capacity keep the matchup live.[2][4]

Traders should watch for any last-minute roster or stand-in news, because qualifier matches can move sharply on player availability and lane-role changes. The live match listing suggests the series has already started or is in progress, and if so the settlement risk is more about completion than scheduling; if it is interrupted, unresolved, or pushed beyond the seven-day window, the market rules say it settles 50-50.[2] Any official bracket update, delay notice, or match abandonment would therefore be more important here than broad tournament context.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Sport Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Sport Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Sport Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.