Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Sport Prediction Pick polygram.ink |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open on Sport Prediction → |
Polymarket polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open on Sport Prediction → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open on Sport Prediction → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open on Sport Prediction → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open on Sport Prediction → |
Live odds for Polymarket-based markets come from the Polygon order book. Non-Polymarket venues show attributes only; clicking any row opens the market on Sport Prediction.
Active sub-markets
| Game 1 Winner | 100% Power Rangers | 0% Yellow Submarine |
| Game 2 Winner | 0% Power Rangers | 100% Yellow Submarine |
| Match Winner | 0% Power Rangers | 100% Yellow Submarine |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% Over | 0% Under |
| Game Handicap: YeS (-1.5) vs Power Rangers (+1.5) | 0% Yellow Submarine | 100% Power Rangers |
| Ends in Daytime | 0% YES | 100% NO |
Market context
The underlying event is the Dota 2 Lower Bracket quarterfinal 1 clash between Power Rangers and Yellow Submarine at The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs, scheduled for 10:00 AM ET on 27 June. Power Rangers entered today with a 2–1 victory over Team Bald, yet their recent form shows volatility, including a 1–3 loss to PARIVISION on 23 June and a 0–2 defeat to Team Bald on 24 June[1]. Their overall win rate sits at 45% across professional matches, with a 60% win rate in their last five games[2][6].
Historically, 100% crowd-implied probabilities in regional qualifiers often precede unexpected outcomes when teams display inconsistent recent results, as seen when lower-ranked squads overturn odds after narrow prior victories. Power Rangers’ 58% win rate last month contrasts with their 45% long-term average, suggesting fragile momentum rather than dominance[2]. Comparable cases in TI qualifiers show that teams with mixed recent scores—like Power Rangers’ 2–1 win followed by two losses—are prone to underperformance despite heavy market backing[3].
Traders should monitor Yellow Submarine’s roster announcements and any schedule shifts, as delays beyond seven days trigger a 50–50 resolution. No recent news confirms Yellow Submarine’s absences, but Power Rangers’ reliance on specific heroes like Terriblade could be a vulnerability if countered[3]. Verify match start times on official streams, as timing dependencies may affect settlement before the 20:40 UTC window on 27 June[3].
Methodology
We track Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Yellow Submarine (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.
Resolution & payout
Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.
Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- On Sport Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- How does resolution work?
- Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Sport Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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