Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Closed Qualifier Playoffs

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Roar Gaming face Cloud Rising in the lower bracket first round of the International China Closed Qualifier playoffs, a best-of-three elimination match scheduled for 16 June. The winner advances in the regional qualifier pathway; the loser is eliminated from contention for a slot at The International. Both teams are competing within China's domestic Dota 2 circuit, where roster stability and scrim performance often diverge sharply from official match results.

The 0% implied probability for Roar Gaming reflects either extreme confidence in Cloud Rising or a market with minimal liquidity and few traders. Historical precedent from similar regional qualifiers suggests lower bracket openers carry genuine uncertainty—teams entering elimination rounds from the lower bracket frequently perform above seeding expectations, particularly when facing opponents with inconsistent recent form. Comparable Chinese qualifier matchups have resolved against the favoured side roughly 30–40% of the time, depending on whether key players were absent during the preceding group stage.

Traders should monitor roster confirmations and any coaching announcements in the week before 16 June, as Chinese qualifier teams occasionally field stand-ins or rotate players between matches. Recent patch notes and hero pool adjustments matter considerably; shifts in the meta can favour teams with stronger mid-lane or support depth. Fixture delays are uncommon in the China qualifier format, though technical issues during broadcast have occasionally pushed matches by several hours. Settlement occurs at 10:00 UTC on 16 June, allowing a narrow window for match completion before the resolution deadline.

Methodology

We track Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International China Closed Qualifier Playoffs on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Sport Prediction, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Sport Prediction is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Sport Prediction?

Zero. Sport Prediction routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Sport Prediction triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.