Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Sport Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 1? | 100% |
| Ends in Daytime | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 1? | 100% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 90% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 1? | 90% |
| Game Handicap: GL (-1.5) vs Vici Gaming (+1.5) | 66% |
| Game Handicap: VG (-1.5) vs GamerLegion (+1.5) | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2? | 50% |
| First Blood in Game 3? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 3? | 50% |
| Ends in Daytime | 50% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 50% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Rampage | 50% |
| Ends in Daytime | 50% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 50% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 50% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 50% |
| Any Player Rampage | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 2? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 60.5 in Game 2? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 65.5 in Game 2? | 50% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 2? | 50% |
| Game 2 Winner | 35% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 35% |
| Match Winner | 22% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 10% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 10% |
| Any Player Rampage | 10% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 1% |
| Game 1 Winner | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 60.5 in Game 1? | 0% |
Market context
Vici Gaming face GamerLegion in a best-of-three Dota 2 encounter during The International's group stage on 14 August 2026. The match is scheduled for 3:10 AM ET, forming part of the tournament's opening round-robin phase where teams compete for seeding advantage ahead of the main bracket.
The 0% implied probability reflects substantial uncertainty around team preparation and roster stability heading into the event. Vici Gaming have historically performed well at The International but have experienced mid-season roster adjustments in recent years, whilst GamerLegion's qualification itself represents a significant achievement for the European squad. Previous International group stages have seen favoured teams stumble against unfamiliar opposition, particularly when time-zone disadvantages affect performance. The scheduling at 3:10 AM ET suggests this match may fall during unconventional hours for Western audiences, a factor that has occasionally influenced match outcomes when teams face fatigue or preparation gaps.
Traders should monitor official team announcements regarding final roster confirmations, which typically occur within 72 hours of group stage commencement. Any coaching staff changes or player illness disclosures would materially shift expectations. The Dota Pro Circuit standings and recent LAN results from both squads through July 2026 will provide the most reliable form indicators. Fixture postponements remain possible given the compressed International schedule; any rescheduling must occur by 28 August 2026 at 23:59 ET to avoid market resolution complications. Watch for official statements from The International organisers regarding venue conditions or technical issues that could affect match timing.
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for Dota 2: Vici Gaming vs GamerLegion (BO3) - The International Group Stage. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
UK Frequently Asked Questions
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- Is Polymarket legal in the UK?
- Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.
- Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?
- UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.
- How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?
- UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.
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