Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Sport Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Game 1 Winner | 100% |
| Match Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 1? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 3? | 100% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 60.5 in Game 1? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 1? | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 65.5 in Game 1? | 100% |
| Ends in Daytime | 90% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 10% |
| First Blood in Game 3? | 10% |
| Ends in Daytime | 10% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 10% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 10% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 10% |
| Any Player Rampage | 10% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 2? | 10% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 2? | 10% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2? | 1% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 1% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 1% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 1% |
| Any Player Rampage | 1% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 60.5 in Game 2? | 1% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 40.5 in Game 2? | 1% |
| Game 2 Winner | 0% |
| Game Handicap: RE (-1.5) vs Yakult Brothers (+1.5) | 0% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 0% |
| Ends in Daytime | 0% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 0% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 0% |
| Any Player Rampage | 0% |
| Game Handicap: YB (-1.5) vs Rune Eaters (+1.5) | 0% |
Market context
Yakult Brothers and Rune Eaters meet in a best-of-three semifinal at the Games of the Future playoffs, with the market already pricing a near-certain Yakult Brothers win. That kind of crowd signal is stronger than the mixed form lines in the run-up: Yakult Brothers have won three of their last five, while Rune Eaters have won four of five, so recent results alone do not justify a 100% assumption in either direction.[2][12]
The historical frame is narrow because the teams are recorded as having no prior head-to-head meeting under these line-ups, which makes roster continuity and bracket context more relevant than any direct matchup data.[2][12] Yakult Brothers have been described as having a stable roster for around 46 days, whereas Rune Eaters have had roster changes in the past month, including personnel turnover around TA2000, Danial and NickyCool, a factor that can matter in a short playoff series.[12]
For traders, the main catalysts are confirmation of the start time, any late schedule slip, and whether either side makes last-minute roster or role changes before the match.[8][12] The bracket and published schedules place the semifinal on 4 August, but coverage has shown slight timing variation across listings, so a delay, walkover, or cancellation would be the more important settlement risk than a routine in-series upset.[3][5][8]
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for Dota 2: Yakult Brothers vs Rune Eaters (BO3) - Games of the Future Playoffs. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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