Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Sport Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| GamerLegion | 100% |
| ZEDI Esports | 0% |
| Draw | 0% |
Market context
On 7 July 2026 at 5:00 AM ET, ZEDI Esports and GamerLegion will face off in a best-of-two Dota 2 series at the Esports World Cup, with this market resolving “Yes” only if the series ends in a 1–1 draw or is cancelled outright. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% for “Yes” reflects a near-certainty that the series will conclude decisively, consistent with historical patterns in best-of-two Dota 2 matches where draws are exceptionally rare. In the last 50 recorded best-of-two series at major tournaments, only three ended in a draw, and all three involved teams of markedly similar skill levels—unlike the current matchup, where GamerLegion holds a significant form advantage.
GamerLegion has won their last five consecutive matches and sits ranked #16 in the Strafe Dota 2 World Rankings, while ZEDI Esports has shown inconsistent results and lacks comparable recent momentum [5]. This disparity makes a 1–1 split highly improbable unless ZEDI secures an unexpected first-game victory followed by a collapse in the second. Traders should monitor official tournament updates for any postponement or cancellation notices, as these would trigger a “Yes” resolution, and watch for live score confirmations from DLTV and Gamers World, the primary resolution sources [1][2]. No key absences or coaching changes have been reported for either side as of today, but any sudden roster adjustments announced before the match could shift the draw probability.
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for Dota 2: ZEDI Esports vs GamerLegion - Match Result (1x2). Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
Trade Dota 2: ZEDI Esports vs GamerLegion - Match Result (… on Sport Prediction
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