Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Sport Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 100% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 100% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 100% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 100% |
| Match Winner | 0% |
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 0% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 0% |
Market context
The underlying event is the League of Legends match between Eintracht Frankfurt and ROSSMANN Centaurs in the Prime League 1st Division Regular Season, scheduled for 11:00 AM ET on 2 July 2026. Historical data shows these teams are evenly matched, with two wins each in their previous four encounters, including a 1-0 victory for Eintracht Frankfurt in January 2026 and a 1-0 win for ROSSMANN Centaurs in April 2026[2][3]. However, the current 0% probability for Eintracht Frankfurt to win mirrors the sentiment from Strafe users just before the match, who predicted ROSSMANN Centaurs to win with 73.3% confidence, a forecast that proved accurate as Centaurs secured a 1-0 victory in the Best of 3 series on the same day[1]. This historical precedent of Centaurs dominating recent head-to-head clashes, despite the teams' overall parity, frames the market's extreme bias against Frankfurt.
Traders must monitor official Prime League announcements regarding roster changes or coaching shifts, as Centaurs' recent form suggests a tactical edge that Frankfurt has struggled to counter. Recent coverage from Strafe highlights Centaurs' strong performance in Game 1, where they executed a flawless 0-0 start to secure the win, indicating a potential key absence or strategic gap in Frankfurt's lineup that could persist[1]. With the settlement window ending on 2 July 2026 at 21:00 UTC, any delay beyond seven days without a winner would trigger a 50-50 resolution, though the match has already concluded with Centaurs winning[1]. The absence of Frankfurt in recent high-stakes matches and Centaurs' consistent 1-0 results in their last two meetings serve as the primary catalysts for this market's direction.
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for LoL: Eintracht Frankfurt vs ROSSMANN Centaurs (BO1) - Prime League 1st Division Regular Season. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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