LoL: Supernova vs Conviction (BO3) - North American Challengers League Playoffs

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Supernova and Conviction will contest the upper bracket semifinal of the North American Challengers League playoffs on 22 May, with the winner advancing directly to the grand final. The match is scheduled for 19:00 ET and will be best-of-three. A 0% implied probability suggests either missing information about team rosters, recent performance data, or structural uncertainty around whether the match will proceed as scheduled.

Historical precedent in NA Challengers League playoffs shows that seeding and regular-season form correlate weakly with knockout performance, particularly in upper bracket semifinals where both teams have already cleared preliminary rounds. Upsets occur frequently when one team has experienced mid-season roster churn or coaching transitions. The 0% reading is unusual for a match between two established organisations and warrants scrutiny of recent roster announcements, injury reports, or coaching staff changes that may have shifted competitive balance sharply in one direction.

Traders should monitor official League of Legends Championship Series communications for any schedule amendments, team roster confirmations, or withdrawal announcements through to the settlement window closing on 23 May at 04:00 UTC. Conviction and Supernova's final regular-season standings and playoff bracket positioning will clarify seeding advantage. Any public statements from either organisation regarding player availability or preparation status in the week preceding the match could shift the probability materially from its current extreme position. Confirmation that both teams field their expected lineups by match day remains the primary dependency for standard resolution.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, PolyGram triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.