Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Sport Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
90% | 10% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
90% | 10% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Both Teams Slay a Dragon | 90% |
| Odd/Even Total Kills | 90% |
| Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor | 10% |
| Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors | 10% |
| Any Player Quadra Kill | 10% |
| Any Player Penta Kill | 10% |
| Match Winner | 0% |
Market context
ZYB Esport and Skillcamp Esport are scheduled to meet in a one-game LFL Regular Season match, and the market has already priced ZYB as an outsider at 0% YES. That is consistent with the broader pre-match picture: aggregated fan voting on Strafe favours Skillcamp, with 68.4% of votes on Skillcamp and 31.6% on ZYB, suggesting the crowd expected Skillcamp to be the more likely winner before the result was known.[1]
The main historical context is that recent comparable meetings have leaned Skillcamp’s way in the available records, while at least one later head-to-head listing shows ZYB winning 1-0 in a previous matchup, so this is not a one-sided rivalry in purely historical terms.[2][5] Earlier match data from February also placed Skillcamp ahead in team ranking and recent win rate, with Skillcamp listed at rank #79 versus ZYB at #110, and recent win rates of over 50% and 40% respectively.[4] That sort of gap helps explain why pre-match probability was heavily tilted, but it also shows why a 0% market can still be fragile if the line-up or scheduling picture changes.
For traders, the key catalysts are simple: confirm the match actually starts and completes, watch for any late roster announcements, and check whether either side fields a substitute or faces a last-minute forfeit risk. Current live match listings from GosuGamers and BO3.gg indicate the fixture is on the schedule and has been tracked as a Bo1, but live or delayed listings can change quickly if the league adjusts timing or if an official result is posted after play begins.[2][3] If the game is postponed beyond the market’s seven-day settlement window without a winner, the contract is set to resolve 50-50 rather than to either team.[market description]
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for LoL: ZYB Esport vs Skillcamp Esport (BO1) - LFL Regular Season. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Are prediction markets better than sports betting?
- Prediction markets tend toward tighter odds than bookmakers because they use peer-to-peer exchange rather than bookmaker margin. On major matches, Polymarket quotes typically sit 2-5% closer to the true probability model than bet365 or DraftKings.
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
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