Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Sport Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map 2 Winner | 100% |
| Match Winner | 100% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: G2 Esports (-2.5) vs Sentinels (+2.5) | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 100% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 100% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 100% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: G2 Esports (-2.5) vs Sentinels (+2.5) | 99% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 99% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: G2 Esports (-3.5) vs Sentinels (+3.5) | 99% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 99% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: G2 Esports (-4.5) vs Sentinels (+4.5) | 99% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 18.5 | 99% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 16.5 | 99% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 17.5 | 99% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 25.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 1% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 1% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: G2 Esports (-4.5) vs Sentinels (+4.5) | 1% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: G2 Esports (-3.5) vs Sentinels (+3.5) | 1% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: G2 Esports (-6.5) vs Sentinels (+6.5) | 1% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: G2 Esports (-7.5) vs Sentinels (+7.5) | 1% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: G2 Esports (-5.5) vs Sentinels (+5.5) | 1% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 1% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 23.5 | 1% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 25.5 | 1% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: G2 Esports (-5.5) vs Sentinels (+5.5) | 1% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: G2 Esports (-6.5) vs Sentinels (+6.5) | 1% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: G2 Esports (-8.5) vs Sentinels (+8.5) | 1% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: G2 Esports (-7.5) vs Sentinels (+7.5) | 1% |
| Map 1 Winner | 0% |
| Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Sentinels (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: G2 Esports (-2.5) vs Sentinels (+2.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: G2 Esports (-3.5) vs Sentinels (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map Handicap: SEN (-1.5) vs G2 Esports (+1.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Sentinels (-2.5) vs G2 Esports (+2.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: Sentinels (-3.5) vs G2 Esports (+3.5) | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 25.5 | 0% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 26.5 | 0% |
Market context
G2 Esports and Sentinels were due to meet in a best-of-three at VCT Americas Stage 2, with the market hinging on a straight match winner rather than map score. In recent comparable meetings, G2 have held the edge overall: Strafe lists the head-to-head at 8-4 in G2’s favour, and says the teams last met in November 2025, when G2 won 1-0.[2] The broader comparison is also supportive of G2’s standing: Hotspawn described G2 as the Americas Stage 2 upper-final winner over Sentinels, with that result moving the year’s head-to-head to 4-2 for G2 at that point.[11]
Form is the main reason the crowd-implied price looks extreme. Strafe’s pre-match form line had G2 at 2 wins from their last 5 and Sentinels at 3 from 5, while Bo3 reported both sides winning on the previous stage day, including G2 over Cloud9 and Sentinels over LOUD, leaving Sentinels 2-0 and G2 1-1 in Group Omega at that stage.[2][4] For traders, the important catalysts are whether the scheduled series is played as listed and whether any late roster or staffing changes emerge before first map; the market resolves 50-50 if the match is not played, tied, or delayed beyond seven days without a winner.[1][10] Beat-level reporting and official VCT scheduling pages also matter here because this was a same-day group fixture in Los Angeles, where live bracket pressure and any substitution news can move a BO3 more than raw season ranking.[9][18]
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for Valorant: G2 Esports vs Sentinels (BO3) - VCT Americas Stage 2 Group Omega. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- What's the difference between match odds and outright odds?
- Match odds cover a single game ("Bayern beats BVB"). Outright odds are long-term aggregates ("Bayern wins the league"). Outright markets have deeper liquidity; match markets have faster resolution.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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