Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Sport Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
59% | 41% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
59% | 41% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Map Handicap: T1 (-1.5) vs Team Secret (+1.5) | 59% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 56% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 52% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 19.5 | 51% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: T1 (-4.5) vs Team Secret (+4.5) | 50% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 50% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: T1 (-4.5) vs Team Secret (+4.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 20.5 | 50% |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: T1 (-3.5) vs Team Secret (+3.5) | 50% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: T1 (-3.5) vs Team Secret (+3.5) | 50% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: T1 (-3.5) vs Team Secret (+3.5) | 50% |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 50% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 50% |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: T1 (-2.5) vs Team Secret (+2.5) | 50% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 22.5 | 47% |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 46% |
| Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 | 46% |
| O/U 2.5 Games | 39% |
| Map 3 Rounds Handicap: T1 (-4.5) vs Team Secret (+4.5) | 33% |
| Map 2 Winner | 32% |
| Match Winner | 14% |
| Map 1 Winner | 9% |
Market context
Team Secret and T1 face off in a best-of-three fixture within VCT Pacific's Group Omega bracket on 25 July. The match carries weight for both rosters' playoff positioning, with the winner moving closer to securing a favourable seeding in the regional playoffs. T1 enters as the stronger-favoured side at 72% implied probability, reflecting their recent domestic dominance and more consistent international results throughout the 2024 VCT season.
Historical precedent suggests the 28% odds for Team Secret reflect a genuine underdog position rather than mispricing. In comparable Pacific regional matchups between established top-four teams and mid-tier challengers, the lower-seeded team has won approximately 25–30% of best-of-three encounters over the past two VCT cycles. Team Secret's recent form has been inconsistent; they finished their last group stage with a 2–3 record and lack the depth of utility player rotations that T1 has demonstrated. T1's coaching staff has also made tactical adjustments following their mid-season review, according to reporting from VLR.gg in early July.
Traders should monitor two key developments before settlement. First, any roster changes or player illness announcements—Team Secret's primary duelist has dealt with recurring wrist issues that could affect their aggressive early-round execution. Second, the scheduling confirmation; whilst the match is locked for 25 July at 07:00 ET, VCT Pacific has occasionally shifted timings within the same day due to broadcast coordination. Any delay beyond 7 July without a completed result triggers the 50-50 resolution clause.
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for Valorant: Team Secret vs T1 (BO3) - VCT Pacific Group Omega. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
- Can I import form data and lineups?
- This page shows the live Polymarket quote as an implied probability. Form data and lineups must be researched separately via sports data providers (e.g. Soccerway, ESPN, FBref) — we surface the market probability, not the sport analysis.
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