Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Sport Prediction) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
56% | 44% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
56% | 44% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| ↓ 1,800 | 56% |
| ↑ 2,000 | 14% |
| ↓ 1,700 | 13% |
| ↑ 2,100 | 5% |
| ↓ 1,600 | 4% |
| ↑ 2,200 | 2% |
| ↓ 1,500 | 2% |
| ↑ 2,500 | 1% |
| ↑ 2,400 | 1% |
| ↑ 2,300 | 1% |
| ↓ 1,400 | 1% |
| ↑ 2,600 | 0% |
| ↓ 1,300 | 0% |
| ↓ 1,200 | 0% |
Market context
Ethereum is trading near the middle of a broad 2026 pullback, which makes the August 3-9 window a test of whether buyers can extend the recent rebound rather than a fresh trend break. Spot prices were around $1,739 to $1,845 in early August, versus a 52-week range of $1,388.12 to $4,955.90, and Ethereum is still down roughly 37% over the past year in one historical series.[1][2]
That backdrop matters because the market has recently been dealing with weaker momentum after repeated failures to sustain rallies. One August 2026 forecast dataset still had ETH oscillating mostly between about $1,300 and $1,450 across the first half of the month, while other prediction models were more constructive, showing August averages above $2,500 and highs above $3,200; the spread in these views is a reminder that the current 0% YES implied price is far from consensus and should be read as a statement about low conviction, not certainty.[14][15][18]
Traders should watch whether the early-August price holds above the recent $1,700-$1,800 area, because several short-term charts and forecasts treat that zone as the nearest support and breakout threshold.[4][9][10] The main catalysts are macro crypto headlines, any change in flows or liquidity, and whether ETH can keep trading above the levels implied by live prediction-market pricing around August 3, which showed the contract already anchored near the mid-$1,800s.[12][19]
Methodology
Sports-specific comparison page for What price will Ethereum hit August 3-9?. Polymarket's live quote (Polygon order book) plus platform attributes for the three reference venues. Sports markets reward liquidity — Polymarket and Betfair are materially deeper than Kalshi or Manifold.
Resolution & payout
Sports markets typically settle on official final-whistle plus league confirmation. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with a source URL per contract — usually official league data feeds or ESPN/Soccerway. Two-hour dispute window, then smart-contract payout in USDC.
FAQ
- When do sports markets resolve?
- Typically within hours of the official final whistle. Polymarket uses UMA Optimistic Oracle with source URLs pointing at official league data feeds — e.g. the Premier League for EPL markets, UEFA for Champions League, FIFA for World Cup.
- Can I bet on individual matches?
- Yes, Polymarket lists every major Premier League / Champions League / World Cup match as its own market. Liquidity varies — top matches like El Clásico or a semi-final often have six-figure pools, lower-league games closer to three-figure.
- What are live sports odds on Polymarket?
- Some top-tier matches stay open during play — you can trade the half-time probability in the 70th minute. Polymarket mid-prices update second-by-second; any frontend mirroring the order book shows the same movement.
- Which sports markets are available?
- Football (soccer) dominates — Champions League, World Cup, Premier League, La Liga, Bundesliga — followed by NFL, NBA, tennis Grand Slams, Formula 1, boxing/MMA. Resolution via official league source confirmation.
- How fast do sports winnings settle?
- Once the official league outcome is logged in the UMA Oracle (typically 1-2 hours after the final whistle), Polymarket's smart contract triggers USDC payout. To your wallet within minutes.
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